Presidential Polling with 59 days to go and counting

Now comes the good part. Now comes the time when all political junkies are overdosing on polling stats.

There are more polls than you can shake a stick at and many of them are full of bunk and a lot at them are very effective and active. My main problem with the polling statistics is I refuse to pay for these educational guess.


Being fairly proficient in net surfing I have decided to conduct my own Internet research on polling stats and from time to time present my findings to you in an article. I want to focus on key battle ground states or on hotly contested races at the state level.

My research tells me that the race is as everyone is predicting, very tight. In general Obama is leading McCain 51% to 48%. This roughly equates to elect Oriel votes equal aim 276 for Obama and 260 electoral votes for McCain. However, the race seems to be trending in Obama’s favor. Some red states can now be considered turning blue for Obama. states that have shifted towards the Democrats are Nevada and New Mexico. Also, North Carolina is trending towards Obama.

Recent Nevada State polls place Obama as high as 50% to McCain’s 45%. State polling shows a somewhat mixed review. CNN puts the race at 49% to 44% for Obama. the Mason Dixon poll shows McCain leading with 45% to 39%. Rasmussen shows a statistical tie with Obama hat 44% and McCain at 43%.

State and national polls in New Mexico are both leaning towards Obama. CNN shows 53% to 48% for Obama and Rasmussen shows 48% to 44% for Obama. Overall, Obama is leading by 7-8%

John McCain is currently projected to be leading by 3.9% in North Carolina. However, the race does appear to be tightening. State polls show McCain leading by as much as 46% to 40%. But, the majority of national polls show Obama leading on the average 50% to 45%

Nevada, New Mexico, and North Carolina should have been safe states for McCain. Now with the race tightening, McCain will have to spend time resources defending or taking back the states. If Obama can continue to open a lead in these states, he just may grow some coattails and help local and state level democratic candidates win in the fall.


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