03
Oct
04

No Bullshit Polls – 3 Oct 2004

Kerry pulls ahead of Bush in Newsweek poll
By Reuters

Democrat challenger John Kerry has pulled ahead of U.S. President George W. Bush in a poll published by Newsweek magazine showing Thursday’s television debate erased the lead Bush had enjoyed for the last month.
In a two-way contest, the Kerry/Edwards ticket in the Nov. 2 presidential election led by 49 percent against 46 percent for Bush/Cheney, according to 1,013 registered voters polled by Princeton Survey Research Associates International.

According to the poll, 61 percent of Americans who watched the first presidential debate on Sept. 30 said Kerry won, 19 percent said Bush won and 16 percent said they tied. The number of debate viewers surveyed was 770.


Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 238 Bush 296


Wyoming (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 29%
Bush: 65%
Nader: 2%
Source: American_Res._Group-3 (Sep 11)

2000: Gore: 28.3%, Bush 69.2%, Nader 2.0%

Wisconsin (10 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 49%
Nader: 2%
Source: Strategic_Vision_(R)-3 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 47.8%, Bush 47.6%, Nader 3.6%

West Virginia (5 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 51%
Nader: 2%
Source: Gallup-4 (Sep 20)

2000: Gore: 45.6%, Bush 51.9%, Nader 1.6%

Washington (11 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 45%
Nader: 2%
Source: Strategic_Vision_(R)-3 (Sep 22)

2000: Gore: 50.2%, Bush 44.6%, Nader 4.1%

Virginia (13 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 43%
Bush: 49%
Nader: 1%
Source: Mason-Dixon-4 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 44.5%, Bush 52.5%, Nader 2.2%

Vermont (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 50%
Bush: 40%
Nader: 4%
Source: American_Res._Group-4 (Sep 12)

2000: Gore: 50.7%, Bush 40.8%, Nader 6.9%

Vermont (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 50%
Bush: 40%
Nader: 4%
Source: American_Res._Group-4 (Sep 12)

2000: Gore: 50.7%, Bush 40.8%, Nader 6.9%

Utah (5 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 27%
Bush: 64%
Nader: 4%
Source: American_Res._Group-4 (Sep 13)

2000: Gore: 26.5%, Bush 67.2%, Nader 4.7%

Texas (34 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 37%
Bush: 58%
Source: Survey_USA-3 (Sep 21)

2000: Gore: 38.0%, Bush 59.3%

Tennessee (11 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 43%
Bush: 49%
Source: Rasmussen-14 (Sep 29)

2000: Gore: 47.3%, Bush 51.2%

South Dakota (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 40%
Bush: 52%
Source: Rasmussen-1 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 37.6%, Bush 60.3%

South Carolina (8 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 32%
Bush: 59%
Source: Basswood Res. (R)-2 (Sep 26)

2000: Gore: 40.9%, Bush 56.9%

Rhode Island (4 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 55%
Bush: 37%
Nader: 4%
Source: Survey_USA-3 (Sep 20)

2000: Gore: 61.0%, Bush 31.9%, Nader 6.1%

Rhode Island (4 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 55%
Bush: 37%
Nader: 4%
Source: Survey_USA-3 (Sep 20)

2000: Gore: 61.0%, Bush 31.9%, Nader 6.1%

Pennsylvania (21 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 44%
Nader: 2%
Source: Mason-Dixon-2 (Sep 28)

2000: Gore: 50.6%, Bush 46.4%, Nader 2.1%

Oregon (7 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 45%
Source: Davis Hibbits-4 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 47.1%, Bush 46.6%

Oklahoma (7 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 29%
Bush: 52%
Source: Basswood_Res._(R)-1 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 38.4%, Bush 60.3%

Ohio (20 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 49%
Source: Rasmussen-7 (Sep 30)

2000: Gore: 46.4%, Bush 50.0%

North Dakota (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 33%
Bush: 62%
Nader: 1%
Source: American_Res._Group-4 (Sep 10)

2000: Gore: 33.1%, Bush 60.7%, Nader 3.3%

North Carolina (15 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 43%
Bush: 52%
Source: Mason-Dixon-3 (Sep 28)

2000: Gore: 43.1%, Bush 56.0%

New York (31 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 53%
Bush: 41%
Source: Rasmussen-7 (Sep 25)

2000: Gore: 60.2%, Bush 35.2%

New Mexico (5 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 43%
Bush: 47%
Nader: 2%
Source: Mason-Dixon-2 (Sep 16)

2000: Gore: 47.9%, Bush 47.8%, Nader 3.6%

New Jersey (15 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 44%
Nader: 2%
Source: Fairleigh_Dickinson-6 (Sep 28)

2000: Gore: 56.1%, Bush 40.3%, Nader 3.0%

New Jersey (15 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 44%
Nader: 2%
Source: Fairleigh_Dickinson-6 (Sep 28)

2000: Gore: 56.1%, Bush 40.3%, Nader 3.0%

New Hampshire (4 EVs)
Tied
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 46%
Nader: 2%
Source: Research_2000-4 (Sep 23)

2000: Gore: 46.9%, Bush 48.2%, Nader 3.9%

New Hampshire (4 EVs)
Tied
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 46%
Nader: 2%
Source: Research_2000-4 (Sep 23)

2000: Gore: 46.9%, Bush 48.2%, Nader 3.9%

Nevada (5 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 48%
Nader: 2%
Source: Belden_Russenello-9 (Sep 28)

2000: Gore: 46.2%, Bush 49.8%, Nader 2.5%

Nebraska (5 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 30%
Bush: 61%
Nader: 2%
Source: American_Res._Group-4 (Sep 12)

2000: Gore: 33.2%, Bush 62.2%, Nader 3.5%

Montana (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 36%
Bush: 54%
Nader: 2%
Source: Mason-Dixon-3 (Sep 22)

2000: Gore: 33.4%, Bush 58.4%, Nader 5.9%

Missouri (11 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 51%
Source: Rasmussen-7 (Sep 25)

2000: Gore: 47.1%, Bush 50.4%

Mississippi (6 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 51%
Nader: 1%
Source: American_Res._Group-4 (Sep 17)

2000: Gore: 40.7%, Bush 57.6%, Nader 0.8%

Minnesota (10 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 46%
Source: Strategic_Vision_(R)-3 (Sep 28)

2000: Gore: 47.9%, Bush 45.5%

Michigan (17 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 42%
Nader: 1%
Source: Strategic_Vision_(R)-3 (Sep 28)

2000: Gore: 51.3%, Bush 46.1%, Nader 2.0%

Massachusetts (12 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 64%
Bush: 27%
Nader: 0%
Source: American_Res._Group-4 (Sep 13)

2000: Gore: 59.9%, Bush 32.5%, Nader 6.4%

Massachusetts (12 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 64%
Bush: 27%
Nader: 0%
Source: American_Res._Group-4 (Sep 13)

2000: Gore: 59.9%, Bush 32.5%, Nader 6.4%

Maryland (10 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 45%
Source: Rasmussen-14 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 56.6%, Bush 40.2%

Maryland (10 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 45%
Source: Rasmussen-14 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 56.6%, Bush 40.2%

Maine (4 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 39%
Nader: 4%
Source: Strategic_Marketing-5 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 49.1%, Bush 44.0%, Nader 5.7%

Louisiana (9 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 50%
Nader: 1%
Source: American_Res._Group-5 (Sep 21)

2000: Gore: 44.9%, Bush 52.6%, Nader 0.8%

Kentucky (8 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 38%
Bush: 53%
Nader: 3%
Source: Bluegrass_Poll-6 (Sep 15)

2000: Gore: 41.3%, Bush 56.4%, Nader 1.5%

Kansas (6 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 35%
Bush: 57%
Nader: 2%
Source: American_Res._Group-4 (Sep 18)

2000: Gore: 37.2%, Bush 58.0%, Nader 3.4%

Iowa (7 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 49%
Source: Strategic_Vision_(R)-3 (Sep 29)

2000: Gore: 48.6%, Bush 48.3%

Indiana (11 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 40%
Bush: 53%
Source: Rasmussen-14 (Sep 29)

2000: Gore: 41.0%, Bush 56.6%

Illinois (21 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 42%
Source: Rasmussen-14 (Sep 30)

2000: Gore: 54.6%, Bush 42.6%

Idaho (4 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 30%
Bush: 59%
Nader: 3%
Source: American_Res._Group-3 (Sep 10)

2000: Gore: 27.6%, Bush 67.2%, Nader 2.5%

Hawaii (4 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 41%
Nader: 4%
Source: American_Res._Group-5 (Sep 11)

2000: Gore: 55.8%, Bush 37.5%, Nader 5.9%

Georgia (15 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 33%
Bush: 58%
Nader: 1%
Source: Strategic_Vision_(R)-3 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 43.2%, Bush 55.0%, Nader 0.0%

Florida (27 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 50%
Source: Rasmussen-7 (Sep 29)

2000: Gore: 48.8%, Bush 48.8%

D.C. (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 78%
Bush: 11%
Nader: 6%
Source: American_Res._Group-3 (Sep 13)

2000: Gore: 85.7%, Bush 9.0%, Nader 5.3%

D.C. (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 78%
Bush: 11%
Nader: 6%
Source: American_Res._Group-3 (Sep 13)

2000: Gore: 85.7%, Bush 9.0%, Nader 5.3%

Delaware (3 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 38%
Nader: 1%
Source: West_Chester_Univ.-4 (Sep 25)

2000: Gore: 55.0%, Bush 41.9%, Nader 2.5%

Delaware (3 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 38%
Nader: 1%
Source: West_Chester_Univ.-4 (Sep 25)

2000: Gore: 55.0%, Bush 41.9%, Nader 2.5%

Connecticut (7 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 38%
Nader: 4%
Source: Quinnipiac_Univ.-3 (Sep 28)

2000: Gore: 55.9%, Bush 38.4%, Nader 4.4%

Connecticut (7 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 38%
Nader: 4%
Source: Quinnipiac_Univ.-3 (Sep 28)

2000: Gore: 55.9%, Bush 38.4%, Nader 4.4%

Colorado (9 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 52%
Nader: 2%
Source: Survey_USA-3 (Sep 23)

2000: Gore: 42.4%, Bush 50.8%, Nader 5.3%

California (55 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 53%
Bush: 40%
Source: Rasmussen-7 (Sep 25)

2000: Gore: 53.4%, Bush 41.7%

Arkansas (6 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 53%
Source: Survey_USA-3 (Sep 29)

2000: Gore: 45.9%, Bush 51.3%

Arizona (10 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 53%
Source: Survey_USA-3 (Sep 29)

2000: Gore: 44.7%, Bush 51.0%

Alaska (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 30%
Bush: 57%
Nader: 5%
Source: American_Res._Group-3 (Sep 11)

2000: Gore: 27.8%, Bush 58.8%, Nader 10.1%

Alabama (9 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 40%
Bush: 56%
Source: Rasmussen-14 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 41.6%, Bush 56.5%

electoral college map

Data in Excel format
Battleground states
Info about the states
Previous report
News

electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (112)
electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (48)
electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (78)
electoral college tied Exactly tied (4)
electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (64)
electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (105)
electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (127)
Needed to win: 270

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