Archive for October, 2004

03
Oct
04

No Bullshit Polls – 3 Oct 2004

Kerry pulls ahead of Bush in Newsweek poll
By Reuters

Democrat challenger John Kerry has pulled ahead of U.S. President George W. Bush in a poll published by Newsweek magazine showing Thursday’s television debate erased the lead Bush had enjoyed for the last month.
In a two-way contest, the Kerry/Edwards ticket in the Nov. 2 presidential election led by 49 percent against 46 percent for Bush/Cheney, according to 1,013 registered voters polled by Princeton Survey Research Associates International.

According to the poll, 61 percent of Americans who watched the first presidential debate on Sept. 30 said Kerry won, 19 percent said Bush won and 16 percent said they tied. The number of debate viewers surveyed was 770.


Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 238 Bush 296


Wyoming (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 29%
Bush: 65%
Nader: 2%
Source: American_Res._Group-3 (Sep 11)

2000: Gore: 28.3%, Bush 69.2%, Nader 2.0%

Wisconsin (10 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 49%
Nader: 2%
Source: Strategic_Vision_(R)-3 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 47.8%, Bush 47.6%, Nader 3.6%

West Virginia (5 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 51%
Nader: 2%
Source: Gallup-4 (Sep 20)

2000: Gore: 45.6%, Bush 51.9%, Nader 1.6%

Washington (11 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 45%
Nader: 2%
Source: Strategic_Vision_(R)-3 (Sep 22)

2000: Gore: 50.2%, Bush 44.6%, Nader 4.1%

Virginia (13 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 43%
Bush: 49%
Nader: 1%
Source: Mason-Dixon-4 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 44.5%, Bush 52.5%, Nader 2.2%

Vermont (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 50%
Bush: 40%
Nader: 4%
Source: American_Res._Group-4 (Sep 12)

2000: Gore: 50.7%, Bush 40.8%, Nader 6.9%

Vermont (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 50%
Bush: 40%
Nader: 4%
Source: American_Res._Group-4 (Sep 12)

2000: Gore: 50.7%, Bush 40.8%, Nader 6.9%

Utah (5 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 27%
Bush: 64%
Nader: 4%
Source: American_Res._Group-4 (Sep 13)

2000: Gore: 26.5%, Bush 67.2%, Nader 4.7%

Texas (34 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 37%
Bush: 58%
Source: Survey_USA-3 (Sep 21)

2000: Gore: 38.0%, Bush 59.3%

Tennessee (11 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 43%
Bush: 49%
Source: Rasmussen-14 (Sep 29)

2000: Gore: 47.3%, Bush 51.2%

South Dakota (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 40%
Bush: 52%
Source: Rasmussen-1 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 37.6%, Bush 60.3%

South Carolina (8 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 32%
Bush: 59%
Source: Basswood Res. (R)-2 (Sep 26)

2000: Gore: 40.9%, Bush 56.9%

Rhode Island (4 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 55%
Bush: 37%
Nader: 4%
Source: Survey_USA-3 (Sep 20)

2000: Gore: 61.0%, Bush 31.9%, Nader 6.1%

Rhode Island (4 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 55%
Bush: 37%
Nader: 4%
Source: Survey_USA-3 (Sep 20)

2000: Gore: 61.0%, Bush 31.9%, Nader 6.1%

Pennsylvania (21 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 44%
Nader: 2%
Source: Mason-Dixon-2 (Sep 28)

2000: Gore: 50.6%, Bush 46.4%, Nader 2.1%

Oregon (7 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 45%
Source: Davis Hibbits-4 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 47.1%, Bush 46.6%

Oklahoma (7 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 29%
Bush: 52%
Source: Basswood_Res._(R)-1 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 38.4%, Bush 60.3%

Ohio (20 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 49%
Source: Rasmussen-7 (Sep 30)

2000: Gore: 46.4%, Bush 50.0%

North Dakota (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 33%
Bush: 62%
Nader: 1%
Source: American_Res._Group-4 (Sep 10)

2000: Gore: 33.1%, Bush 60.7%, Nader 3.3%

North Carolina (15 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 43%
Bush: 52%
Source: Mason-Dixon-3 (Sep 28)

2000: Gore: 43.1%, Bush 56.0%

New York (31 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 53%
Bush: 41%
Source: Rasmussen-7 (Sep 25)

2000: Gore: 60.2%, Bush 35.2%

New Mexico (5 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 43%
Bush: 47%
Nader: 2%
Source: Mason-Dixon-2 (Sep 16)

2000: Gore: 47.9%, Bush 47.8%, Nader 3.6%

New Jersey (15 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 44%
Nader: 2%
Source: Fairleigh_Dickinson-6 (Sep 28)

2000: Gore: 56.1%, Bush 40.3%, Nader 3.0%

New Jersey (15 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 44%
Nader: 2%
Source: Fairleigh_Dickinson-6 (Sep 28)

2000: Gore: 56.1%, Bush 40.3%, Nader 3.0%

New Hampshire (4 EVs)
Tied
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 46%
Nader: 2%
Source: Research_2000-4 (Sep 23)

2000: Gore: 46.9%, Bush 48.2%, Nader 3.9%

New Hampshire (4 EVs)
Tied
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 46%
Nader: 2%
Source: Research_2000-4 (Sep 23)

2000: Gore: 46.9%, Bush 48.2%, Nader 3.9%

Nevada (5 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 48%
Nader: 2%
Source: Belden_Russenello-9 (Sep 28)

2000: Gore: 46.2%, Bush 49.8%, Nader 2.5%

Nebraska (5 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 30%
Bush: 61%
Nader: 2%
Source: American_Res._Group-4 (Sep 12)

2000: Gore: 33.2%, Bush 62.2%, Nader 3.5%

Montana (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 36%
Bush: 54%
Nader: 2%
Source: Mason-Dixon-3 (Sep 22)

2000: Gore: 33.4%, Bush 58.4%, Nader 5.9%

Missouri (11 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 51%
Source: Rasmussen-7 (Sep 25)

2000: Gore: 47.1%, Bush 50.4%

Mississippi (6 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 51%
Nader: 1%
Source: American_Res._Group-4 (Sep 17)

2000: Gore: 40.7%, Bush 57.6%, Nader 0.8%

Minnesota (10 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 46%
Source: Strategic_Vision_(R)-3 (Sep 28)

2000: Gore: 47.9%, Bush 45.5%

Michigan (17 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 42%
Nader: 1%
Source: Strategic_Vision_(R)-3 (Sep 28)

2000: Gore: 51.3%, Bush 46.1%, Nader 2.0%

Massachusetts (12 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 64%
Bush: 27%
Nader: 0%
Source: American_Res._Group-4 (Sep 13)

2000: Gore: 59.9%, Bush 32.5%, Nader 6.4%

Massachusetts (12 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 64%
Bush: 27%
Nader: 0%
Source: American_Res._Group-4 (Sep 13)

2000: Gore: 59.9%, Bush 32.5%, Nader 6.4%

Maryland (10 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 45%
Source: Rasmussen-14 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 56.6%, Bush 40.2%

Maryland (10 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 45%
Source: Rasmussen-14 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 56.6%, Bush 40.2%

Maine (4 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 39%
Nader: 4%
Source: Strategic_Marketing-5 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 49.1%, Bush 44.0%, Nader 5.7%

Louisiana (9 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 50%
Nader: 1%
Source: American_Res._Group-5 (Sep 21)

2000: Gore: 44.9%, Bush 52.6%, Nader 0.8%

Kentucky (8 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 38%
Bush: 53%
Nader: 3%
Source: Bluegrass_Poll-6 (Sep 15)

2000: Gore: 41.3%, Bush 56.4%, Nader 1.5%

Kansas (6 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 35%
Bush: 57%
Nader: 2%
Source: American_Res._Group-4 (Sep 18)

2000: Gore: 37.2%, Bush 58.0%, Nader 3.4%

Iowa (7 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 49%
Source: Strategic_Vision_(R)-3 (Sep 29)

2000: Gore: 48.6%, Bush 48.3%

Indiana (11 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 40%
Bush: 53%
Source: Rasmussen-14 (Sep 29)

2000: Gore: 41.0%, Bush 56.6%

Illinois (21 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 42%
Source: Rasmussen-14 (Sep 30)

2000: Gore: 54.6%, Bush 42.6%

Idaho (4 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 30%
Bush: 59%
Nader: 3%
Source: American_Res._Group-3 (Sep 10)

2000: Gore: 27.6%, Bush 67.2%, Nader 2.5%

Hawaii (4 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 41%
Nader: 4%
Source: American_Res._Group-5 (Sep 11)

2000: Gore: 55.8%, Bush 37.5%, Nader 5.9%

Georgia (15 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 33%
Bush: 58%
Nader: 1%
Source: Strategic_Vision_(R)-3 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 43.2%, Bush 55.0%, Nader 0.0%

Florida (27 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 50%
Source: Rasmussen-7 (Sep 29)

2000: Gore: 48.8%, Bush 48.8%

D.C. (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 78%
Bush: 11%
Nader: 6%
Source: American_Res._Group-3 (Sep 13)

2000: Gore: 85.7%, Bush 9.0%, Nader 5.3%

D.C. (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 78%
Bush: 11%
Nader: 6%
Source: American_Res._Group-3 (Sep 13)

2000: Gore: 85.7%, Bush 9.0%, Nader 5.3%

Delaware (3 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 38%
Nader: 1%
Source: West_Chester_Univ.-4 (Sep 25)

2000: Gore: 55.0%, Bush 41.9%, Nader 2.5%

Delaware (3 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 38%
Nader: 1%
Source: West_Chester_Univ.-4 (Sep 25)

2000: Gore: 55.0%, Bush 41.9%, Nader 2.5%

Connecticut (7 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 38%
Nader: 4%
Source: Quinnipiac_Univ.-3 (Sep 28)

2000: Gore: 55.9%, Bush 38.4%, Nader 4.4%

Connecticut (7 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 38%
Nader: 4%
Source: Quinnipiac_Univ.-3 (Sep 28)

2000: Gore: 55.9%, Bush 38.4%, Nader 4.4%

Colorado (9 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 52%
Nader: 2%
Source: Survey_USA-3 (Sep 23)

2000: Gore: 42.4%, Bush 50.8%, Nader 5.3%

California (55 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 53%
Bush: 40%
Source: Rasmussen-7 (Sep 25)

2000: Gore: 53.4%, Bush 41.7%

Arkansas (6 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 53%
Source: Survey_USA-3 (Sep 29)

2000: Gore: 45.9%, Bush 51.3%

Arizona (10 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 53%
Source: Survey_USA-3 (Sep 29)

2000: Gore: 44.7%, Bush 51.0%

Alaska (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 30%
Bush: 57%
Nader: 5%
Source: American_Res._Group-3 (Sep 11)

2000: Gore: 27.8%, Bush 58.8%, Nader 10.1%

Alabama (9 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 40%
Bush: 56%
Source: Rasmussen-14 (Sep 27)

2000: Gore: 41.6%, Bush 56.5%

electoral college map

Data in Excel format
Battleground states
Info about the states
Previous report
News

electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (112)
electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (48)
electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (78)
electoral college tied Exactly tied (4)
electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (64)
electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (105)
electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (127)
Needed to win: 270

01
Oct
04

No Bullshit Polls – 1 Oct 2004

Bush’s Real Opponent

By David S. Broder

Saturday, October 2, 2004; Page A21

President Bush and Sen. John Kerry faced very different challenges when they met Thursday night for their first debate, but only Kerry seemed to recognize exactly what he needed to do.

The Democratic nominee’s task was to straighten out the internal contradictions that had facilitated the successful Republican assault on him as a flip-flopper. He bent every effort to the urgent need to appear straightforward and strong — keeping his back straight, his head high, his answers short and his thoughts clear. For most of the night, he was the aggressor, pressing the case for a change of command in the war on terrorism, which has been Bush’s strongest suit.

Bush had a different assignment. A Kerry weakened by months of Republican rhetoric painting him as a vacillating wimp was far less of a threat to a second term than the disturbing news bulletins and television pictures from the Iraq battlefront. Bush’s need was to reconcile his upbeat rhetoric about the coming of a new democratic era in Iraq with the bloody warfare that has pinned 140,000 American troops in that misery-laden country with no end in sight.

In 90 minutes before the biggest audience of the campaign, Bush not only failed to do that — he barely tried. And that omission leaves him at risk to future events as the insurgency in Iraq gathers momentum.

Instead of dealing with his greatest vulnerability, Bush did what was predictable. He repeated the favorite examples his campaign has gleaned from the abundant contradictions on Iraq policy Kerry has uttered since he first voted to authorize the use of force against Saddam Hussein back in 2002. It is a catalogue that has become familiar through millions of dollars of Republican ads, and by the time Bush had used the same phrase seven times — citing Kerry’s dismissal of Iraq as the “wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time” — there was a rote quality to the recital that reduced its sting.

On a day when the headlines carried news of more than 40 deaths — most of them children — from insurgent attacks Bush pronounced himself “realistic but optimistic” about the course of events in Iraq. Kerry briefly challenged that picture, arguing that “it’s getting worse by the day.” But Bush never responded directly, and estimable moderator Jim Lehrer inexplicably failed to ask the president to reconcile the glaring contradiction between the White House version of events in Iraq and the reality of the growing resistance.

I have argued for a long time that Bush’s real opponent in this campaign is not John Kerry but the Iraqi insurgency, and unfortunately that is turning out to be the case. Bush did nothing during the debate to defuse the threat.

But Kerry did himself some good by refusing to be defensive about his checkered history on Iraq or attempting yet one more convoluted explanation of his incoherent past positions. Instead, he focused on future steps. His preferred solution for Iraq, starting with “a summit” of European and Middle East nations to drum up more international peacekeeping forces, may be a long shot, but when Bush failed to challenge Kerry’s contention that the president’s plan is simply “more of the same,” the gamble did not seem totally implausible.

I thought I saw Bush wince a bit when Kerry recalled that the president’s father had not tried to topple Saddam Hussein at the end of the Persian Gulf War of 1991 because he said “there was no viable exit strategy and . . . our troops would be occupiers in a bitterly hostile land.”

“That’s exactly where we find ourselves today,” Kerry said. And though he vowed he would not pull out of Iraq without a victory, the implication of his words is clear: If Kerry wins, the future of Iraq will be left to Iraqis.

The debate confirmed that Kerry is simply incapable of appealing to people in personal terms. The kind of emotion Bush displayed when talking about Missy Johnson, the war widow he had comforted in Charlotte, just does not come from Kerry.

But he succeeded last night in separating the war in Iraq from the war on terrorism — something Bush does not want to let happen — and for the moment at least, his demeanor made it believable for him to say, “I’ve never wilted in my life. And I’ve never wavered in my life.”

For a man who was on the ropes a couple weeks ago, it was at least enough to keep the fight going.

davidbroder@washpost.com

erry won the debate, according to instant polls

Updated 01:27pm (Mla time) Oct 01, 2004
Agence France-Presse

Get INQ7 breaking news on your Smart mobile phone in the Philippines. Send INQ7 BREAKING to 386.

WASHINGTON, District of Columbia, United States of America — Democratic challenger John Kerry won the first televised presidential debate against Republican President George W. Bush late Thursday, according to instant polls released after.

A Gallup poll for CNN gave Kerry a 46 percent to 37 percent win over the president.

It added that 46 percent of those asked now have a better opinion of Kerry against 21 percent for Bush.

The CBS network, which asked 200 voters, said 44 percent gave victory to Kerry against 26 percent who thought the president had the upper hand. Thirty percent said neither candidate won.

An ABC poll of 531 people gave 45 percent for Kerry, 36 percent for Bush and 17 percent for a draw.

Democratic National Committee (DNC) �
DNC
http://www.democrats.org/
Estados Unidos
Pol�tica > Elecciones
Noticia n�: 34775
Agencia emisora:
vie 01 Oct 2004

The National Verdict is In: John Kerry Wins First Debate

Washington, DC � The reviews are in and according to the talking heads and today’s news it is clear that at last night’s debate America saw John Kerry as the next President of the United States. Kerry’s strength, conviction, and steady command of the facts left no doubt that he can lead the fight on terrorism and finish the job in Iraq. Kerry beat expectations, he looked presidential, and he proved his foreign policy credentials.

But don’t take out our word for it:

KERRY’S THE WINNER � HE BEAT EXPECTATIONS

Joe Scarborough: “John Kerry won the debate. Karl Rove: John Kerry won the debate.” [MSNBC, 10/1/04]

Peggy Noonan: “Mr. Kerry did himself some good in that he seemed focused, to my mind, for once.” [Fox News Channel, 9/20/04]

Sen. John McCain: “I think that Kerry did a good job.” [MSNBC, 9/30/04]

Fred Barnes: “Kerry did very well and we will have a presidential race from here on out” [Fox News Channel, 9/30/04]

Howard Fineman: “Kerry won the event.” [MSNBC, 10/1/04]

Mark Whitaker, Newsweek: “I think Kerry won on style in this debate.” [CNN, 9/30/04]

Joe Scarborough: “It was John Kerry’s best performance ever�As far as the debate goes, I don’t see how anybody could look at this debate and not score this a very clear win on points for John Kerry.” [MSNBC, 9/30/04]

Ron Reagan: “Kerry was the clear winner.” [MSNBC, 9/30/04]

Bill Kristol: “I think Kerry did pretty well.” [Fox News Channel, 9/30/04]

Andrea Mitchell: “Kerry began to narrow the gap.” [MSNBC, 9/30/04]

Chris Matthews: “I thought it was smart for Kerry to keep going back to saying that 90% of the casualties were American. For the President to deny that is going against American perceptions.” [MSNBC, 9/30/04]

Craig Crawford: “Kerry was good about not being put on the defensive. There were many opportunities he may have wanted to respond to the mixed messages that Bush kept talking about, he would just kind of laugh and let it go and make his points. He won the cutaway shots.” [MSNBC, 10/1/04]

George Stephanopoulos: “Kerry has momentum coming out of here.” [ABC, 9/30/04]

Boston Globe Headline: “Kerry stays focused, projects strength” [10/1/04]

Los Angles Times Headline: “TV Analysts Give Kerry an Early Lead in Quest for Spin” [10/1/04]