No Bullshit Polls – 28 Sep 2004

Bush, Kerry Tied in Nationwide Investor’s Business Daily Poll

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) — President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are in a statistical dead heat in a nationwide poll taken for Investor’s Business Daily.

Kerry has the support of 46 percent of 649 likely voters and Bush is the choice of 45 percent in a poll taken for the newspaper by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence from Sept. 22-27. The results are within the poll’s plus or minus 4 percentage point margin of error. A Sept. 14-18 Investor’s Business Daily poll showed Bush with a 3 point lead over Kerry.

In a three-way race which includes independent candidate Ralph Nader, Bush and Kerry are tied at 45 percent each among likely voters, with Nader garnering 2 percent. Eight percent of the respondents said they were undecided. Nader has qualified for the ballot in at least 37 states, according to his campaign.

Among 907 registered voters, 44 percent back Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, and 44 percent back Bush in both the two-way and three-way races.

The Investor’s Business Daily poll differs from surveys taken by the Washington Post/ABC News and CNN/USA Today/Gallup, which showed Bush, 58, with a lead of at least 6 percentage points over Kerry. Those polls surveyed voters through Sept. 26.

PRESIDENTIAL POLL: Race in Nevada a tossup

Nader factor and Yucca Mountain could tip scales in Silver State


Click image for enlargement.

Click image for enlargement.

Click image for enlargement.

The presidential race in Nevada has tightened significantly and is beginning to reflect its national status as a battleground, according to a statewide poll of likely voters conducted for the Review-Journal and reviewjournal.com.

The Republican ticket of George Bush and Dick Cheney led the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards 46 percent to 43 percent. Seven percent were undecided, and 4 percent went for Ralph Nader, heading the independent ticket.

That’s significantly closer than a similar poll conducted in March, which showed Bush up 49 percent to 38 percent over Kerry with 9 percent undecided.

The poll of 625 voters was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage point.

Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire

September 28, 2004

Kerry Gets Endorsement of Bush’s Hometown Paper“A weekly newspaper that bills itself as President Bush’s hometown paper endorsed John Kerry for president, saying the Massachusetts senator will restore American dignity,” the AP reports.
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New PollsZogby will begin daily national tracking, starting October 4th and running right through Election Eve, November 1st. Sign up today!Though Sen. John Kerry has “held a narrow but consistent lead among registered voters under age 30,” the new GENEXT Poll shows that President Bush “has pulled even.” Since last month’s poll, Bush gained slightly among young voters (+3 percentage points), while Kerry lost support (-5 points). Poll junkies should note today’s commentary from the Electoral Vote Predictor: “It is becoming increasingly clear that the pollsters are producing the results that the people paying the bills want to hear. Even pollsters who were once thought to be above suspicion are now suspicious.” Update: The new Investor’s Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor poll has Kerry leading Bush 46% to 45% among likely voters. Among registered voters, they are tied at 44%.Here are the latest state polls:
North Carolina: Bush 50, Kerry 44 (Research 2000)
Ohio: Kerry 46, Bush 46 (Lake Snell Perry – D)
New Hampshire: Kerry 47, Bush 47 (Lake Snell Perry – D)
Oklahoma: Bush 57, Kerry 31 (Wilson Research)
Pennsylvania: Kerry 46, Bush 42 (Quinnipiac)
Michigan: Kerry 45, Bush 42 (Inside Michigan Politics)
Delaware: Kerry 45, Bush 37 (West Chester University)

MPR Poll: Presidential race a dead heat

Larger view
Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry visited Cloquet, Minnesota, in July. Both he and President Bush are targeting the state because, as the latest poll shows, the race here is a tossup. (MPR file photo)

A new poll suggests Minnesota voters are evenly divided between re-electing President George Bush or replacing him with Democratic rival John Kerry. The survey, commissioned by Minnesota Public Radio and the St. Paul Pioneer Press, shows 45 percent of likely voters favor Sen. Kerry and 44 percent support Bush. Ralph Nader attracted 2 percent support. Those results haven’t changed much in the last few months.


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