26
Sep
04

No Bullshit Polls – Sep 25, 2004

Wednesday, September 22, 2004 � Last updated 7:50 a.m. PT

Poll: Kerry cements lead in Washington state

By DAVID AMMONS
AP POLITICAL WRITER

OLYMPIA, Wash. — Washington state, once considered a fiercely competitive presidential battleground, is firmly in Democrat John Kerry’s column heading into the final weeks of a volatile campaign, according to a new poll commissioned by The Columbian.

Kerry, who considers the three West Coast states a key part of his electoral math to defeat President Bush, led the Republican president 51 percent to 42 percent among Washington respondents.


Rasmussen Reports

Saturday September 25, 2004–The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

In the Electoral College, the latest Rasmussen Reports projection shows Bush leading 213 to 211. However, the situation is a bit more positive for the President than those raw numbers suggest. There are nine states with 114 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category.


PollingReport.com National Trial Heat Summary

Full survey details are available here (plus match-ups with Nader, reelect questions, etc.).
?STATE POLLS are in our subscriber area. INFO









BUSH vs. KERRY: 2-way trial heats, among likely voters; with leaners, where available.
(See also registered voters.)




Survey BUSH KERRY
Margin Includes
Running-


End Date % %
Bush Kerry mates?



FOX/Opinion Dynamics 9/22 45 43
2 N



Democracy Corps (D) 9/21 49 49

N



Zogby 9/19 47 44
3 Y



IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/18 46 43
3 N



GWU Battleground 9/16 49 45
4 N


INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY

Jewish Republican has long seemed an oxymoron. It still does today.

A new poll by the American Jewish Committee of 1,000 American Jews finds that only 16% claim the GOP as their party. President Bush does a little better, with 24% support among Jews against John Kerry’s 69%.

That’s an improvement over 2000, when Bush won 19% of the Jewish vote. But it’s still three points shy of the Cold War average for Republicans among Jews. It’s also well below expectations.

Polls earlier this year hinted Bush might win as much as a third of the Jewish vote. That would put him in the same league with Presidents Eisenhower, Nixon and Reagan.

Now it looks like he won’t beat Gerald Ford’s 27% in 1976.

“It’s got to be a gigantic disappointment (for the Bush camp),” said J.J. Goldberg, editor of The Forward, the leading Jewish newspaper in New York.

“From 19 to 24 in a survey of this nature is a very slight bump, given the margin of error (three percentage points),” Goldberg said. “It does show that the big swing that Bush had been calling for and been expecting didn’t happen.”





Bush, Kerry Deadlocked In West Virginia



CREDIT: Mario Fabretto (FOTW Flags Of The World website at flagspot.net)


(CPOD) Sept. 26, 2004 � The state of West Virginia is too close to call in the 2004 United States presidential race, according to a poll by American Research Group. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for Republican incumbent George W. Bush, while 46 per cent would support Democratic nominee John Kerry.

Two per cent of respondents would vote for independent candidate Ralph Nader, one per cent would support another contender and six per cent remain undecided. The election is scheduled for Nov. 2.

Support for Bush increased by two per cent since July, while backing for Kerry dropped by one per cent. In June, the Democrat held a three per cent lead over the Republican.

Bush carried the state�s five electoral votes in 2000 with 51.9 per cent of all cast ballots. Democratic candidates have carried West Virginia in eight of the last 11 presidential elections.

Polling Data

What candidate would you vote for in the 2004 U.S. presidential election?


Sept. 2004

Jul. 2004

Jun. 2004

George W. Bush (R)

46%

44%

44%

John Kerry (D)

46%

47%

47%

Ralph Nader (I)

2%

3%

3%

Other

1%

Undecided

6%

6%

6%

Source: American Research Group
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 600 likely West Virginia voters, conducted from Sept. 14 to Sept. 16, 2004. Margin of error is 4 per cent.


GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

No Significant Change in Presidential Contest in Florida

Among likely voters in the three polls conducted in Florida in July, August, and September, Kerry’s support has been steady at 46%, while Bush’s vote has fluctuated slightly, from 48% to 50%.

The consistency of the vote is also evident among registered voters, with Kerry receiving 44% to 45%, and Bush 45% to 49%.


Kerry/
Edwards

Bush/
Cheney

Nader/
Camejo

Neither/other/
no opinion


%

%

%

%

Likely voters





2004 Sep 18-22

46

49

2

3

2004 Aug 20-22

46

48

2

4

2004 Jul 19-22

46

50

1

3






Registered voters





2004 Sep 18-22

45

47

2

6

2004 Aug 20-22

45

45

3

7

Poll shows tight presidential race in Nevada

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A new poll shows the presidential race remains close in Nevada, with both candidates running about even.

President Bush has 47 percent to Democratic challenger John Kerry’s 45 percent. That’s according to a survey done by the American Research Group.

The last week’s poll of 600 likely voters had a sampling error margin of four percentage points.

A battleground state Bush won four years ago, Nevada’s voter registration is almost evenly divided among Democrats and Republicans. The state also has a sizable number of nonpartisans and splinter-party members.

The American Research Group poll had six percent of voters undecided with Ralph Nader receiving one percent.

(Copyright 2004 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)

NBC poll: Bush holds narrow lead
Many voters don’t believe Kerry has a clear message
By Mark Murray
NBC NEWS
Updated: 7:24 p.m. ET Sept. 22, 2004

WASHINGTON – Less than six weeks before Election Day, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows President Bush with a lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry � but it’s within the margin of error, and it’s much smaller than some other recent post-GOP convention polls indicate.

Still, the survey has some troubling numbers for Kerry as he tries to close Bush’s narrow lead: Female voters aren’t flocking to the Massachusetts senator as they have to past Democratic candidates, and a solid majority of overall voters believes he doesn’t have a message, or doesn’t know what he would do if elected.

The poll, conducted by Hart/McInturff, shows Bush receiving support from 48 percent of registered voters, Kerry getting 45 percent, and Nader getting 2 percent. Among likely voters (defined as those expressing high interest in the November election, who represent 78 percent of the survey), Bush holds a four-point lead over Kerry, 50 percent to 46 percent.

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