Archive for September, 2004


No Bullshit Polls – 28 Sep 2004

Bush, Kerry Tied in Nationwide Investor’s Business Daily Poll

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) — President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are in a statistical dead heat in a nationwide poll taken for Investor’s Business Daily.

Kerry has the support of 46 percent of 649 likely voters and Bush is the choice of 45 percent in a poll taken for the newspaper by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence from Sept. 22-27. The results are within the poll’s plus or minus 4 percentage point margin of error. A Sept. 14-18 Investor’s Business Daily poll showed Bush with a 3 point lead over Kerry.

In a three-way race which includes independent candidate Ralph Nader, Bush and Kerry are tied at 45 percent each among likely voters, with Nader garnering 2 percent. Eight percent of the respondents said they were undecided. Nader has qualified for the ballot in at least 37 states, according to his campaign.

Among 907 registered voters, 44 percent back Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, and 44 percent back Bush in both the two-way and three-way races.

The Investor’s Business Daily poll differs from surveys taken by the Washington Post/ABC News and CNN/USA Today/Gallup, which showed Bush, 58, with a lead of at least 6 percentage points over Kerry. Those polls surveyed voters through Sept. 26.

PRESIDENTIAL POLL: Race in Nevada a tossup

Nader factor and Yucca Mountain could tip scales in Silver State


Click image for enlargement.

Click image for enlargement.

Click image for enlargement.

The presidential race in Nevada has tightened significantly and is beginning to reflect its national status as a battleground, according to a statewide poll of likely voters conducted for the Review-Journal and

The Republican ticket of George Bush and Dick Cheney led the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards 46 percent to 43 percent. Seven percent were undecided, and 4 percent went for Ralph Nader, heading the independent ticket.

That’s significantly closer than a similar poll conducted in March, which showed Bush up 49 percent to 38 percent over Kerry with 9 percent undecided.

The poll of 625 voters was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage point.

Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire

September 28, 2004

Kerry Gets Endorsement of Bush’s Hometown Paper“A weekly newspaper that bills itself as President Bush’s hometown paper endorsed John Kerry for president, saying the Massachusetts senator will restore American dignity,” the AP reports.
Link Related News TrackBack (0)

New PollsZogby will begin daily national tracking, starting October 4th and running right through Election Eve, November 1st. Sign up today!Though Sen. John Kerry has “held a narrow but consistent lead among registered voters under age 30,” the new GENEXT Poll shows that President Bush “has pulled even.” Since last month’s poll, Bush gained slightly among young voters (+3 percentage points), while Kerry lost support (-5 points). Poll junkies should note today’s commentary from the Electoral Vote Predictor: “It is becoming increasingly clear that the pollsters are producing the results that the people paying the bills want to hear. Even pollsters who were once thought to be above suspicion are now suspicious.” Update: The new Investor’s Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor poll has Kerry leading Bush 46% to 45% among likely voters. Among registered voters, they are tied at 44%.Here are the latest state polls:
North Carolina: Bush 50, Kerry 44 (Research 2000)
Ohio: Kerry 46, Bush 46 (Lake Snell Perry – D)
New Hampshire: Kerry 47, Bush 47 (Lake Snell Perry – D)
Oklahoma: Bush 57, Kerry 31 (Wilson Research)
Pennsylvania: Kerry 46, Bush 42 (Quinnipiac)
Michigan: Kerry 45, Bush 42 (Inside Michigan Politics)
Delaware: Kerry 45, Bush 37 (West Chester University)

MPR Poll: Presidential race a dead heat

Larger view
Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry visited Cloquet, Minnesota, in July. Both he and President Bush are targeting the state because, as the latest poll shows, the race here is a tossup. (MPR file photo)

A new poll suggests Minnesota voters are evenly divided between re-electing President George Bush or replacing him with Democratic rival John Kerry. The survey, commissioned by Minnesota Public Radio and the St. Paul Pioneer Press, shows 45 percent of likely voters favor Sen. Kerry and 44 percent support Bush. Ralph Nader attracted 2 percent support. Those results haven’t changed much in the last few months.


No Bullshit Polls – 26 Sep 2004

Kerry and Bush Statistically Tied in Pennsylvania, Poll Says

Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) — Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry and President George W. Bush are statistically tied in Pennsylvania, according to a statewide poll by the Philadelphia Inquirer and Temple University.

Kerry, a four-term Massachusetts senator, had the support of 49 percent of likely voters in the November election, while 47 percent favored Bush, according to the Inquirer. The poll, conducted over eight days ending Sept. 24, surveyed 1,133 people throughout the state, and had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Four percent of voters are undecided, the paper said.

Kerry leads Bush in the suburbs outside Philadelphia, 51 percent to 43 percent, the paper said.

The state, which has 21 Electoral College votes, was won by former Vice President Al Gore in 2000 by 204,840 votes, or 4.3 percent.

A review of state-by-state polls and historical voting data by Bloomberg News shows Bush ahead in 20 states, including Texas and Utah, with 163 electoral votes. Kerry leads in 10 states, including New York and Maryland, with 143 electoral votes. In 20 states that have 232 electoral votes, including Pennsylvania and Minnesota, results of the most recent polls are within the margin of error.


No Bullshit Polls – Sep 25, 2004

Wednesday, September 22, 2004 � Last updated 7:50 a.m. PT

Poll: Kerry cements lead in Washington state


OLYMPIA, Wash. — Washington state, once considered a fiercely competitive presidential battleground, is firmly in Democrat John Kerry’s column heading into the final weeks of a volatile campaign, according to a new poll commissioned by The Columbian.

Kerry, who considers the three West Coast states a key part of his electoral math to defeat President Bush, led the Republican president 51 percent to 42 percent among Washington respondents.

Rasmussen Reports

Saturday September 25, 2004–The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

In the Electoral College, the latest Rasmussen Reports projection shows Bush leading 213 to 211. However, the situation is a bit more positive for the President than those raw numbers suggest. There are nine states with 114 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category. National Trial Heat Summary

Full survey details are available here (plus match-ups with Nader, reelect questions, etc.).
?STATE POLLS are in our subscriber area. INFO

BUSH vs. KERRY: 2-way trial heats, among likely voters; with leaners, where available.
(See also registered voters.)

Margin Includes

End Date % %
Bush Kerry mates?

FOX/Opinion Dynamics 9/22 45 43
2 N

Democracy Corps (D) 9/21 49 49


Zogby 9/19 47 44
3 Y

IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/18 46 43
3 N

GWU Battleground 9/16 49 45
4 N


Jewish Republican has long seemed an oxymoron. It still does today.

A new poll by the American Jewish Committee of 1,000 American Jews finds that only 16% claim the GOP as their party. President Bush does a little better, with 24% support among Jews against John Kerry’s 69%.

That’s an improvement over 2000, when Bush won 19% of the Jewish vote. But it’s still three points shy of the Cold War average for Republicans among Jews. It’s also well below expectations.

Polls earlier this year hinted Bush might win as much as a third of the Jewish vote. That would put him in the same league with Presidents Eisenhower, Nixon and Reagan.

Now it looks like he won’t beat Gerald Ford’s 27% in 1976.

“It’s got to be a gigantic disappointment (for the Bush camp),” said J.J. Goldberg, editor of The Forward, the leading Jewish newspaper in New York.

“From 19 to 24 in a survey of this nature is a very slight bump, given the margin of error (three percentage points),” Goldberg said. “It does show that the big swing that Bush had been calling for and been expecting didn’t happen.”

Bush, Kerry Deadlocked In West Virginia

CREDIT: Mario Fabretto (FOTW Flags Of The World website at

(CPOD) Sept. 26, 2004 � The state of West Virginia is too close to call in the 2004 United States presidential race, according to a poll by American Research Group. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for Republican incumbent George W. Bush, while 46 per cent would support Democratic nominee John Kerry.

Two per cent of respondents would vote for independent candidate Ralph Nader, one per cent would support another contender and six per cent remain undecided. The election is scheduled for Nov. 2.

Support for Bush increased by two per cent since July, while backing for Kerry dropped by one per cent. In June, the Democrat held a three per cent lead over the Republican.

Bush carried the state�s five electoral votes in 2000 with 51.9 per cent of all cast ballots. Democratic candidates have carried West Virginia in eight of the last 11 presidential elections.

Polling Data

What candidate would you vote for in the 2004 U.S. presidential election?

Sept. 2004

Jul. 2004

Jun. 2004

George W. Bush (R)




John Kerry (D)




Ralph Nader (I)










Source: American Research Group
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 600 likely West Virginia voters, conducted from Sept. 14 to Sept. 16, 2004. Margin of error is 4 per cent.


No Significant Change in Presidential Contest in Florida

Among likely voters in the three polls conducted in Florida in July, August, and September, Kerry’s support has been steady at 46%, while Bush’s vote has fluctuated slightly, from 48% to 50%.

The consistency of the vote is also evident among registered voters, with Kerry receiving 44% to 45%, and Bush 45% to 49%.




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Likely voters

2004 Sep 18-22





2004 Aug 20-22





2004 Jul 19-22





Registered voters

2004 Sep 18-22





2004 Aug 20-22





Poll shows tight presidential race in Nevada

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A new poll shows the presidential race remains close in Nevada, with both candidates running about even.

President Bush has 47 percent to Democratic challenger John Kerry’s 45 percent. That’s according to a survey done by the American Research Group.

The last week’s poll of 600 likely voters had a sampling error margin of four percentage points.

A battleground state Bush won four years ago, Nevada’s voter registration is almost evenly divided among Democrats and Republicans. The state also has a sizable number of nonpartisans and splinter-party members.

The American Research Group poll had six percent of voters undecided with Ralph Nader receiving one percent.

(Copyright 2004 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)

NBC poll: Bush holds narrow lead
Many voters don’t believe Kerry has a clear message
By Mark Murray
Updated: 7:24 p.m. ET Sept. 22, 2004

WASHINGTON – Less than six weeks before Election Day, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows President Bush with a lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry � but it’s within the margin of error, and it’s much smaller than some other recent post-GOP convention polls indicate.

Still, the survey has some troubling numbers for Kerry as he tries to close Bush’s narrow lead: Female voters aren’t flocking to the Massachusetts senator as they have to past Democratic candidates, and a solid majority of overall voters believes he doesn’t have a message, or doesn’t know what he would do if elected.

The poll, conducted by Hart/McInturff, shows Bush receiving support from 48 percent of registered voters, Kerry getting 45 percent, and Nader getting 2 percent. Among likely voters (defined as those expressing high interest in the November election, who represent 78 percent of the survey), Bush holds a four-point lead over Kerry, 50 percent to 46 percent.